On January 9, The Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) had a meeting to present the forecast of Demand for Semiconductor and FPD Equipment (2019-2021).

Chairman Ushida addressed in the meeting saying, “Owing to the more satisfactory investment than expected in the logic foundry, the declination could be stopped at 8.1% in the anticipated demand for semiconductor equipment in 2019. Considering the expected recovery in the investment in memory, an increase of 8.1% is forecasted for 2020. FPD is forecasted to decrease by 6.8% due to China’s delayed investment in 10.5G and the sluggish situation of OLED. In 2020 we forecast an increase by 4.0%.”

His speech was followed by the explanation of the result of forecast outlined by Kiyoshi Watanabe of SEAJ’s director general. Then Hideyuki Yoshikawa (Ebara Seisakusho), chief of the semiconductor research committee, forecasted saying, “In 2019 the demand related to the data center stayed sluggish on account of the shortage and delayed delivery of CPU, which were expected to cause a decrease in the supply of smartphone for two consecutive years.

In 2020 there will be a full-fledged diffusion of 5G telecommunication, which makes us expect the recovery of data center accordingly. The demand of semiconductor will expand by diversified applications like 5G, AI, IoT and automated driving instead of depending upon the number of delivered electronic equipment.” Based on the forecast, he added, “The demand would increase by 3.4% in 2020 and 3.6% in 2021 recovering back to the level of 2018.”

Yasuhiro Okude (Nissin Ion Equipment), chief of FPD Research and Statistics Specialist Committee, said, “The investment in both medium/small OLED panels of G6 and large-sized panels mainly of G10.5 focuses on China. In the third quarter of 2019 the investment to China accounted for 76%. For 2020 or later excepting China it is forecasted that there will be a rise of movement aimed at a new technological development like the suspension of an LCD line causing a sense of uncertainty.”

Then he forecasted that the demand would decrease by 6.8% in 2019, increase by 4% in 2020 and decrease by 1.9% in 2021.